We have updated our investment case one-pager following the 2023/24 results, new 2024/25 guidance, and recent news. Besides an overview of financials and valuation multiples, the investment case one-pager introduces Scandinavian Medical Solutions and highlights key investment reasons and risks.

SP Group grew its own-brand products to record levels of over 30% during Q3 2024 as the company continues its strong cyclical turnaround. In connection with the Q3 results, SP Group narrowed its guidance, maintaining the midpoint of its Q2 upgrade, now expecting revenue growth of 10-16% y/y, with EBITDA margins of 19-21%, and EBT margins of 11-13%. The growth of own brands YTD 2024 has supported margin expansion and remains a cornerstone of SP Group’s strategy moving forward.  

We are discontinuing our coverage of Mendus as the company has terminated the equity research agreement. Consequently, we will no longer be giving a target price (was SEK 14) or a recommendation (was Accumulate) for the stock.

The latest SKAKO one-pager following the Q3 2024 results looks at the outlook for 2025 and 2026, following SKAKO’s record order for DKK 150m during the quarter. The company reduced its topline guidance slightly in connection with the Q3 results, now expecting revenue growth of -2% to 1% (previously 2% - 5%) while maintaining its EBIT guidance for DKK 24-28m, but now at the lower end. The large order with OCP, relating to a large phosphate mining project in Morrocco is expected to support revenue growth in 2025 and 2026.

Metacon’s Q3 results were mixed, with revenue aligning with our expectations while costs were significantly higher, reflecting the company’s preparations for larger-scale deliveries. With short-term funding soon in check, Metacon can focus on fulfilling the large-scale order from Motor Oil, with clear signs of progress expected to be visible next year. However, given the uncertainty of whether the company will continue to receive larger orders regularly and at what profitability level, the forecast risks remain high.

Nordea tiedotti, että se on saanut Danske Bankin Norjan henkilöasiakas- ja private banking -liiketoimintojen oston päätökseen. Kaupan myötä Nordea arvioi sen markkinaosuuden nousevan Norjan asuntolainamarkkinalla noin 15 %:iin nykyisestä 11 %:sta. Olemme sisällyttäneet kaupan ennusteisiimme, joten lähivuosien liikevoittoennusteemme nousivat noin 2 %.

Remedy on osoittanut vuosien mittaan kykynsä kehittää erittäin laadukkaita pelejä, mikä ei ole kuitenkaan vielä samassa mitassa heijastunut näiden kaupallisessa menestyksessä yhtiölle.

Volyymien tulisi nousta lähes kasvattamon teknistä kapasiteettia vastaavalle tasolle vuoden 2025 aikana, jolloin myös toiminnan tehokkuudesta ja kannattavuudesta saataisiin parempi käsitys.

Optomed tiedotti viikko sitten saaneensa suuren 1,5 MEUR:n laitetilauksen Yhdysvalloista, minkä ansiosta yhtiö nosti vuoden 2024 näkymiään.

Rebl Group tiedotti aloittaneensa muutosneuvottelut, joilla yhtiö pyrkii saavuttamaan noin miljoonan euron vuosisäästöt. Uutisen myötä syntyneet ennustemuutokset jäivät vähäisiksi, sillä olimme jo kaavailleet alkuvuodelle kustannussäästöjä.

Last week, Impero announced its Q3 2024 results, accelerating its ARR growth to 31% YoY and improving its EBITDA. Moreover, Impero's cash flow from operations was positive for the first nine months of 2024, and the FCF/Net New ARR (12 months rolling) improved to -0.7x in Q3 2024. We have updated our investment case one-pager after the Q3 2024 results.

Talouden yllätysindeksit ovat kääntyneet positiivisiksi Kiinassa ja euroalueella, Yhdysvalloissa positiivisia yllätyksiä on saatu entistä enemmän.

NIBE’s Q3 result was operationally slightly below our expectations, and we made small revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. However, the company's outlook continues to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation, but overall, the current year and at least the first half of next year will still be challenging. Eventually, demand at the manufacturer level will better correspond to underlying end consumer demand and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).

The operating environment continues to be challenging due to low consumer purchasing power and confidence. In addition, Björn Borg has, during the past year, struggled with internal challenges in integrating the footwear distribution from the previous partner that went bankrupt early this year. Despite these factors, we believe that Björn Borg delivered a stable third quarter, although it was somewhat below our expectations in terms of sales. The valuation of P/E 17x and EV/EBIT 13x for 2025 looks quite attractive and a combination of dividends and earnings growth should give around 10% total shareholder return.

Following Gabriel’s announcement last week to postpone its FY’23/24 financial reporting due to financial reporting challenges in the Group’s Mexican subsidiary, along with new FY’24/25 guidance on its continuing operations, we have revised our estimates lower and now see higher short-term uncertainties until clarifying news is announced, potentially in the beginning of January 2025. Consequently, we lower our recommendation to Reduce (previously Accumulate), and lower our price target to DKK 225. In the short term, the attractiveness of the investment case is dominated by uncertainties and slower market recovery than expected, however, the long-term potential remains when the market turns more favorable and potentially also when more visibility about the FurnMaster carve-out and the Mexican production unit is provided.

Orthexin kasvu oli Q3:lla hyvällä tasolla, mutta tulos jäi odotettua heikommaksi yhtiön mitoitettua kustannusrakenteensa vahvemman kasvun varaan. Mielestämme tarinan kokonaiskuva on ennallaan, joskin odotamme raportin myötä lähivuosien kasvun vaativan aiempaa raskaampaa kulurakennetta.

Tokmannin Q3-tulos ylitti odotukset ja vahvisti luottamustamme vuoden 2025 tuloskasvukäänteelle. Noussut kuluttajaluottamus näkyi konsernin myymälöissä asiakasvirtojen kasvuna, joka mielestämme luo edellytykset onnistuneelle joulusesongille.

Koskisen Q3-raportti oli kokonaisuutena odotuksiamme heikompi ja teimme raportin jälkeen negatiivisia ennustemuutoksia lähiajoille painottuen.

Earlier this week, MapsPeople announced its Q3 2024 report with updated 2024 guidance and the finalization of its acquisition of Point Consulting's customer contracts and indoor mapping assets. We have updated our investment case one-pager with the new guidance and recent news, including updated valuation multiples across selected Danish-listed SaaS companies.

Read the latest Asetek One-pager following the Q3 2024 results and announcement of a new planned rights issue in connection with the scale-up of Sim-Sports. Following recent changes to the liquid cooling market, with new Chinese entrants, and a larger client insolvency, Asetek’s renewed mid-term ambitions are for liquid cooling revenues around USD 50m, with an EBITDA margin >25%, and continued development of SimSports revenues to around USD 50m, with a positive (single-digit) EBITDA margin. To reach the scale-up in SimSports Asetek expects financing needs of around USD 20m, as positive cash flows from liquid cooling are not fully sufficient and is the foundation for the rights issue.