We are discontinuing our coverage of Mendus as the company has terminated the equity research agreement. Consequently, we will no longer be giving a target price (was SEK 14) or a recommendation (was Accumulate) for the stock.
The latest SKAKO one-pager following the Q3 2024 results looks at the outlook for 2025 and 2026, following SKAKO’s record order for DKK 150m during the quarter. The company reduced its topline guidance slightly in connection with the Q3 results, now expecting revenue growth of -2% to 1% (previously 2% - 5%) while maintaining its EBIT guidance for DKK 24-28m, but now at the lower end. The large order with OCP, relating to a large phosphate mining project in Morrocco is expected to support revenue growth in 2025 and 2026.
Metacon’s Q3 results were mixed, with revenue aligning with our expectations while costs were significantly higher, reflecting the company’s preparations for larger-scale deliveries. With short-term funding soon in check, Metacon can focus on fulfilling the large-scale order from Motor Oil, with clear signs of progress expected to be visible next year. However, given the uncertainty of whether the company will continue to receive larger orders regularly and at what profitability level, the forecast risks remain high.
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Nordea announced that it has completed the acquisition of Danske Bank's Norwegian retail and private banking businesses. As a result of the transaction, Nordea expects to increase its market share in the Norwegian mortgage market from the current 11% to approximately 15%. We have included trade in our forecasts and have increased our EBIT forecasts for the next few years by about 2%.
Over the years, Remedy has demonstrated its ability to develop games of very high quality, but this has not yet been reflected to the same extent in their commercial success for the company.
Last week, Impero announced its Q3 2024 results, accelerating its ARR growth to 31% YoY and improving its EBITDA. Moreover, Impero's cash flow from operations was positive for the first nine months of 2024, and the FCF/Net New ARR (12 months rolling) improved to -0.7x in Q3 2024. We have updated our investment case one-pager after the Q3 2024 results.
NIBE’s Q3 result was operationally slightly below our expectations, and we made small revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. However, the company's outlook continues to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation, but overall, the current year and at least the first half of next year will still be challenging. Eventually, demand at the manufacturer level will better correspond to underlying end consumer demand and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).
The operating environment continues to be challenging due to low consumer purchasing power and confidence. In addition, Björn Borg has, during the past year, struggled with internal challenges in integrating the footwear distribution from the previous partner that went bankrupt early this year. Despite these factors, we believe that Björn Borg delivered a stable third quarter, although it was somewhat below our expectations in terms of sales. The valuation of P/E 17x and EV/EBIT 13x for 2025 looks quite attractive and a combination of dividends and earnings growth should give around 10% total shareholder return.
Following Gabriel’s announcement last week to postpone its FY’23/24 financial reporting due to financial reporting challenges in the Group’s Mexican subsidiary, along with new FY’24/25 guidance on its continuing operations, we have revised our estimates lower and now see higher short-term uncertainties until clarifying news is announced, potentially in the beginning of January 2025. Consequently, we lower our recommendation to Reduce (previously Accumulate), and lower our price target to DKK 225. In the short term, the attractiveness of the investment case is dominated by uncertainties and slower market recovery than expected, however, the long-term potential remains when the market turns more favorable and potentially also when more visibility about the FurnMaster carve-out and the Mexican production unit is provided.
Orthex's growth was at a good level in Q3, but the result fell short of expectations as the company had proportioned its cost structure for stronger growth. In our opinion, the overall picture of the story remains unchanged, although with the report we expect growth in the next few years will require a heavier cost structure.
Tokmanni's Q3 results exceeded expectations and reinforced our confidence in the 2025 earnings growth turnaround. Increased consumer confidence was reflected in higher footfall in the Group's stores, which we believe sets the stage for a successful holiday season.
Earlier this week, MapsPeople announced its Q3 2024 report with updated 2024 guidance and the finalization of its acquisition of Point Consulting's customer contracts and indoor mapping assets. We have updated our investment case one-pager with the new guidance and recent news, including updated valuation multiples across selected Danish-listed SaaS companies.
Read the latest Asetek One-pager following the Q3 2024 results and announcement of a new planned rights issue in connection with the scale-up of Sim-Sports. Following recent changes to the liquid cooling market, with new Chinese entrants, and a larger client insolvency, Asetek’s renewed mid-term ambitions are for liquid cooling revenues around USD 50m, with an EBITDA margin >25%, and continued development of SimSports revenues to around USD 50m, with a positive (single-digit) EBITDA margin. To reach the scale-up in SimSports Asetek expects financing needs of around USD 20m, as positive cash flows from liquid cooling are not fully sufficient and is the foundation for the rights issue.
Despite a recent drop in the share price, we don’t see any rush into the stock yet. A PD3 turnaround appears increasingly improbable, and short-term catalysts are limited.
Inderes reported October sales in line with our estimate in rounded numbers. The growth was 6%, which is slightly below our estimate. Given that the month is driven by recurring business we estimate that the current organic growth rate of recurring revenue is close to 5%, which can be considered a decent performance in a tough market environment. No need for material estimate changes.
Following Danske Banks Q3 2024 report and quarterly numbers from all major Nordic peers we have updated our One-pager including our Nordic peer group to reflect latest estimate changes in the market.
SciBase kept building its commercial momentum in the US where it achieved strong revenue growth in Q3 from low levels. Yet, the major news of the day was the large capital raise, which according to our current assumptions would carry the company to cash flow positivity. After adjusting for the capital raise, the risk/reward is starting to improve but is not yet looking attractive enough as we also expect the rights issue to put downward pressure on the share.
Mandatum published a Q3 report that was slightly below our expectations in terms of earnings figures. The miss was due to quarter-on-quarter volatility in investment performance, and the Group's growth engine, the capital-light businesses, performed well ahead of our expectations.
Read the latest TORM One-pager update following the Q3 2024 results. The One-pager includes a brief description of TORM, an update to the product tanker market, latest financials, valuation perspectives relative to a peer group, and outlines several key investment risks and key investment reasons.
