CapMan’s Q3 result fell sharply short of estimates, but in our view, there was no major drama behind the figures, as the miss came from investment operations. Despite the continued challenging fundraising market, we continue to expect strong earnings growth in the coming years, driven by a gradual increase in new sales as well as carried interest and investment income.

Under the new strategy, CapMan’s business operations have turned to strong growth and profitability has improved clearly. Even though the challenging market situation throws a spanner into the works of new sales in the short term, we believe the company has an excellent position in its sector. As a result, CapMan is well positioned to continue its healthy growth also in the longer term, just like the rest of the asset management sector.

CapMan announced on Friday that it will sell its Service business for a 75 MEUR debt-free price. Even though the price was below our previous estimate, our view of CapMan’s share value remains roughly unchanged. This is particularly explained by our increased estimate of the normal level of carried interest income.

CapMan reported mixed Q2 operational results. Management Business results exceeded our expectations, but we believe the earnings beat was mainly due to one-off items.

CapMan released better-than-expected Q1 figures. However, the EBIT overshoot due to performance fees flowed to the profit share attributable to minorities, so the net result was close to our forecast. In terms of the outlook, the company continued to be very optimistic, especially concerning new sales, and the year started off well for fundraising.

We have updated our CapMan forecast with the acquisition of Dasos Capital. As the transaction was executed at approximately CapMan’s multiples, it has no material impact on our EPS forecasts. We think the stock is cheap relative to the normal earnings level we have set for CapMan, but to get there will require a pick-up in new sales in particular.

CapMan's Q4 report was a clear disappointment and the whole year 2023 was also well below our expectations. Although we have lowered our short-term estimates, our view of the company's normal earnings profile has not changed materially. However, there is clear uncertainty about the timeframe for reaching the earnings level, mainly due to the sluggish market situation.

The Q3 result was in line with expectations and in the short term, the market situation will continue as challenging. We feel the surprising change in the dividend policy is a direct signal of preparing for M&A transactions. The investor story becomes more growth-driven as focus of capital allocation shifts, at least temporarily, from dividends to growth.

CapMan clearly reported a more modest Q2 result than we expected, which has led to a drastic decline in our earnings estimates for the coming years mainly in terms of heavily fluctuating investment and carried interest income

CapMan reported a much softer-than-expected Q1 results, and as a result, we lowered our earnings estimates for the coming years. However, there was no real drama in the results, as the most significant deviations from expectations were seen in investment and carried interest income, which are difficult to predict and fluctuate strongly between quarters.

CapMan's Q4 report was operationally well in line with expectations and the company continues to make strong progress despite the challenging market conditions.

Despite the challenging market situation, we expect strong performance from CapMan. Relative to this, the share valuation is not high. If our estimates materialize, low multiples and high dividend yield already offer a strong return on investment.

CapMan organized a CMD yesterday where it updated its strategy and its financial targets. No major changes were made to the main policies of the strategy, but focus will shift more toward growth and sustainability.

We have revised our forecasts upwards with the very strong Q1 report, and the company's profit outlook remains excellent. With the declined share price and our elevated forecasts, the expected return on the share has improved considerably.

Although CapMan's Q4 result was very good, the impact of beating the expectations remains rather limited as it came wholly from investment income. Our estimate adjustments are relatively small, and we expect the company's result to remain at a strong level in the coming years.

CapMan announced that its important NRE1 fund is entering into carry as a result of completed and agreed exits. Based on the news, we made some adjustments to our estimates.