Metacon has announced the preliminary outcome of their rights issue, which indicates that subscriptions by exercise of subscription rights amount to 24.6%. Additionally, applications for subscription of 4,672,411 shares without the support of subscription rights, corresponding to approximately 0.7% of the rights issue, have been received. Thus, the preliminary outcome indicates that the rights issue is subscribed to approximately 25.3%, and an additional ~54.7% will be subscribed for by guarantors. In total, the rights issue is therefore expected to reach 80% of the maximum subscription, or ~110 MSEK before expenses. While we had anticipated the rights issue to be fully subscribed, the fact that the stock price has occasionally traded below the subscription price makes this outcome less surprising.

The raise, consisting of a rights issue (up to 138 MSEK) and a bridge loan (50 MSEK), lowers the short-term financing risks we had flagged, securing financing needs until around Q2/Q3 2025, when there may already be more signs of accelerating revenue growth. The parameters of the rights issue were somewhat different than expected, including higher dilution, which puts downwards pressure on our valuation of the stock. We expect to address this in more detail in the near future with an update on our view on the company’s valuation. However, the lower valuation of the raise together with the large share of guaranteed commitments should help make the raise successful, which would give the company runway to show more signs of commercial success.

On Thursday, August 8, Metacon announced that it has received an order for the supply of a 30 MW industrial electrolysis plant valued at 19.8 MEUR (~226 MSEK). We believe that this order reflects Metacon's competitive offering in large-scale electrolyzers and successful verification of the technology, as well as the start of the Company's previously announced European manufacturing footprint. Due to the significant size of this order, which on its own is in line with our full-year estimates for 2025, we will revise our estimates and review our recommendation and valuation no later than in connection with the upcoming Q2'24 report on August 22.