Case: Potential impacts of U.S. import tariffs on Helsinki Stock Exchange companies

Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish on April 4th, 2025 at 8:03 AM EET. Please note that the automatic translation currently only covers the text visible here and may contain errors. You can provide feedback on the translations here.

The new import duties announced by the United States are causing headaches for several companies on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, in addition to generally weakening the global economic outlook and increasing uncertainty. Under the current US administration, situations can change rapidly, but according to the current plan, the tariffs should come into effect next Wednesday. The indirect effects of the current trade policy, and especially a potentially looming full-blown trade war, are likely to be greater for most companies than the direct effects, but in this compilation, we outline the potential effects of US import duties on various companies and sectors. This is our best estimate of the current impact, but the situation is evolving and uncertainty is now very high.

Revenio Group

In 2024, 49.7% of Revenio's revenue was USD-denominated sales, which also indicates the proportion of total revenue from the United States. The share is very high compared to the average for the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Revenio's products are manufactured in Europe (Finland and Italy), which means that the company is likely to suffer from the 20% tariff planned for the European Union. In our understanding, medical technology products have not been excluded from the tariff proposal, but the list of exceptions is long and partly difficult to interpret. The planned 20% tariff for the EU is not particularly high compared to fears (e.g., 25% has been mentioned) or tariffs planned for other exporting countries, and the impacts can potentially be mitigated through transfer pricing. We believe that Revenio’s largest competitors also primarily manufacture their products outside the United States, so Revenio will not be at a relative disadvantage in this sense. Still, it is clear that the tariffs would cause difficulties for Revenio and could eat into the company's very high margin levels. Ultimately, however, a greater impact may come from the general uncertainty in the United States, which would affect the entire industry. In addition, it is worth noting that Europe may impose retaliatory tariffs, which could cause tariffs to rise further. The company itself previously estimated in connection with the financial statement that the lower end of the current guidance range would be realistic in a full-blown trade war scenario.

Optomed

Optomed is seeking growth and a breakthrough, particularly with the Aurora AEYE total solution in the United States, making the market's significance truly substantial for the company. In 2024, however, a relatively small portion of Optomed's revenue came from the United States, as the majority of revenue came from the Software segment and Finland. However, in the Devices segment, the United States presumably accounted for a significant portion of revenue, and in our view, the share of the United States has been growing significantly. As we understand it, Optomed's devices are manufactured in Thailand (Fabrinet), which is now surprisingly facing a 36% import tariff to the United States. We believe it is very possible that Thailand will start negotiating the tariffs and the level will eventually be lower than Trump's "formulaic" solution. In Optomed's case, we believe the potential negative impact will be reduced by: 1) the device's share of Aurora AEYE's total solution sales is limited, with a significant portion of the service being AI software, 2) the manufacturing costs of the devices are lower than, for example, table cameras (reducing the proportion of customs duties), and 3) to our knowledge, no relevant handheld fundus cameras are manufactured in the United States. Initially, we do not see the potential direct impacts as dramatic, but in our view, market activity could well decrease and risks have increased.

Detection Technology

DT's customers' end-product sales are global, and the United States is of significant importance, even though direct sales to the United States are low (in 2024, the Americas accounted for approximately 6% of revenue). DT has already been paying tariffs on products manufactured in China and imported to the United States since Trump's first term, but the general tariff imposed on Chinese imports is now apparently rising to over 50%. The best guess is now 54%, but the figures have already changed many times since the beginning of the year. It is also unclear whether the tariffs apply to all of DT's products. In general, this could also be Trump's negotiating tactic, but China is unlikely to back down, and a full-blown trade war may be ahead. This would be negative for everyone, but import duties above the 50% level would inevitably hit the business of DT and its customers in one way or another.

Previously, the tariffs to be imposed on China were estimated at potentially 20% (total level about 40%), which would not have made investments in US manufacturing attractive. Now, both DT and its customers would have to reassess the situation. DT's alternatives are weakened by the fact that the United States is apparently simultaneously imposing a 20% tariff on the European Union (i.e. Finland) and a 26% tariff on India, which would be DT’s other options for country of origin. DT already has manufacturing in Finland and the company is establishing a factory in India, which should be operational by the end of H1'25. As a last resort, DT can, if necessary, establish a manufacturing unit in the United States within approximately 6 months with relatively light investments, but manufacturing is expensive and resources are scarce. There is no local manufacturing of DT's main products, i.e. detectors, in the United States, so the situation does not significantly weaken the relative competitive position. However, at this stage, it would be surprising if the U.S. actions did not have spill-over effects on the end-market development and the operations of end-customers.

Nokia and Teleste

The tariffs would also cause harm to the network equipment manufacturers Nokia and Teleste, which are listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Of Nokia's revenue in 2024, approximately 28% came from North America. Teleste, on the other hand, is currently expanding into North America in its strategy, and in practice, the growth of the coming years will fully rely on succeeding in this. In 2024, North America and other countries outside Europe accounted for 15% of the company's revenue, and the figure is expected to increase significantly in the coming years. Nokia has local production in the United States following the Infinera acquisition, but the majority of its equipment is manufactured elsewhere. Teleste manufactures equipment delivered to the United States in Finland. Both companies utilize contract manufacturers, which provides flexibility in production planning if the tariffs were to become a permanent state of affairs. In practice, no network equipment manufacturer makes devices entirely in the United States, and a large portion of the components are manufactured elsewhere. Thus, the entire industry suffers from tariffs. Teleste already started increasing its local inventory in North America in early 2024 to prepare for tariffs, and the company has commented that its 2025 guidance already incorporates the negative impacts of the tariffs to some extent.

Rapala

In 2023, the United States accounted for 44% of Rapala's revenue. Thus, on the scale of the Helsinki Stock Exchange, the company's exposure to the United States is significant. Rapala's manufacturing is mainly located in Europe and Taiwan, so the planned 20% tariff for the EU and the 32% tariff for Taiwan will negatively impact business. In our view, most of the fishing tackle sold in the United States is manufactured outside the country, so Rapala's relative position should not initially change significantly compared to its competitors. The 34% tariffs imposed on China may even slightly strengthen the company's relative position in the U.S. market due to the significant China exposure of the fishing tackle market. Due to the import-driven nature, the proposed tariffs will create widespread cost pressure in the US fishing equipment market, which is expected to depress the margin of the entire category in the country.

Wärtsilä

28% of Wärtsilä's revenue comes from the Americas, of which the USA accounts for approximately 20 percentage points in our estimate. The USA is a significant end market, especially in Energy and Energy Storage. The company has stated in its recent public investor calls that the decision-making of North American customers in Energy storage has already suffered from the uncertainty caused by the tariff threat. In the Energy business, the products mainly consist of engines manufactured in Finland, and in Energy Storage, a significant portion of deliveries consist of batteries sourced from, e.g., Asia. Thus, high tariffs could significantly affect new equipment sales in these segments (especially the latter). At the same time, it should be noted that 72% of the operating profit in the Energy and Energy Storage businesses comes from services (including spare parts sales), which are likely to be only slightly affected by tariffs in the short term. The USA accounts for a small share of the destinations of the largest segment, Marine, but a decline in global economic activity would likely have indirect effects on the segment's earnings performance.

Vaisala

Vaisala’s revenue is fairly evenly distributed around the world, but the United States, as a large market area, accounts for a significant share of revenue (we estimate 27%). Vaisala has production in the USA, which is specifically related to locally used products – we understand mainly to the Weather and Environment business area's observation devices. We believe that the key clientele for weather observation equipment consists of public sector operators, who, in our opinion, cannot afford to pay significantly higher prices as tariffs rise, which could reduce demand for weather observation equipment manufactured in Finland. In our view, price increases are easier to implement for industrial measurement instruments, and most of the competitors in this segment, like Vaisala, are from the EU and subject to the same tariffs. The key question is how the tariffs will affect global industrial investments, as this drives the demand for industrial measurement instruments. To our understanding, Vaisala has the option to consider transferring the production of some of its products to the United States to avoid tariffs.

Fiskars

The USA accounts for approximately 30% of the Fiskars Group's sales and about half of the Fiskars segment's sales. Of Fiskars' total production, about half is own production and half is subcontracting, with China accounting for about 15% of the total. The company has said it has been able to offset previous tariffs with price increases. With the tariffs imposed on the EU, Fiskars' situation is becoming more difficult, as Fiskars' own production for goods going to the USA comes mainly from Europe. We do not believe that the new tariffs can be immediately passed on to sales prices, and margin pressure will arise for the Fiskars segment towards the end of the year. However, competitors' products are also mainly from outside the USA, so there should not be major changes in the competitive situation, and the tariffs will probably be reflected in prices over time. Naturally, the increase in prices may also have a negative impact on demand.

Harvia

North America, mainly the USA, is Harvia's largest market area, accounting for 35% of the company's revenue in 2024. Harvia's main product in the USA is complete saunas, which it manufactures locally. Similarly, the production of steam products acquired last year is local. As we have commented previously, wood raw material is also imported from Canada, and possible tariffs on them have already raised raw material prices for Harvia. The company does not manufacture sauna heaters in the USA; instead, they are imported either from China or Finland. However, Harvia has more local production compared to its competitors, so tariffs should not weaken its competitive position. We believe that the company will largely be able to offset the impact of tariffs by raising sales prices. We believe the key question for Harvia is whether the strong demand trend for saunas will continue despite rising prices and weakening overall consumer demand.

Engineering companies

The business of the engineering sector's players is inherently global, with the USA being a significant end market. Thus, the tariff decisions affect domestic listed engineering companies, as we believe that almost all players have exports to the USA (especially regarding the equipment business). The direct impacts on each company naturally depend on the share of revenue from the USA and the extent of their own local manufacturing (typically mostly assembly). However, the effects are initially negative. At the same time, it should be noted that supply chains (components) are typically global, which, based on current information, will also affect the production costs of local manufacturing (including significant local competitors). In our view, many companies had also prepared for potential tariffs by increasing inventories in the USA, which, in our estimation, could mean that the effects of the tariffs on deliveries may be seen with a slight delay (e.g., pricing and new orders). We have briefly discussed the potential impacts on the companies below.

Regarding Metso, we see the tariff decision affecting especially the Aggregates business (North and Central America's share of the segment's revenue in 2023–2024 38–40%), for which we discussed the tariffs imposed on Canada (i.e. McCloskey's Canadian production from Metso's perspective) earlier here. On the other hand, the situation is complex for the entire US market, as there is very limited domestic crusher production in the country. In our view, the manufacturing capacity of competitors is also limited, and components are largely imported. In addition, competitors (e.g. Terex also import crushers into their own distribution chain from elsewhere. Thus, the impact on the development of Metso's relative position may be limited, but this may have an impact on the recovery of the crusher market. In the Minerals business, on the other hand, North and Central America have accounted for approximately 17–18% of revenue. However, we estimate that this revenue is distributed more widely geographically, reflecting the characteristics of the mining markets. At the same time, it is worth noting the high share of service revenue in Minerals, in addition to which Metso has local production in the USA (subcontracting and imports presumably also from outside). However, we consider it possible that the tariffs may at least cause delays in customers' decision-making.

Of Kalmar's total revenue in 2023-2024, 26-36% came from the USA, making the market significant for the company. In our opinion, the company's most important product area in the USA is terminal tractors, which it manufactures at its local Ottawa (located in Kansas) factory. Thus, the effects related to the region's most important product area remain more limited, although tariff decisions would likely have a negative impact on demand through industrial activity. Similarly, the equipment for other customer segments is largely manufactured outside the USA (especially in Poland), which would therefore be subject to import duties. In other customer segments, the share of local manufacturing varies, but in our view, in the product areas that are regionally most significant for Kalmar, manufacturing capacity is limited and competitors import products and components to a significant extent from elsewhere. In our view, the risks outside of terminal tractors for the development of Kalmar's relative position are still at least slightly negative in the U.S. market. Tariffs can also be expected to have negative effects on the material handling market, which would also be reflected in Konecranes and Hiab.

The Americas region has accounted for over 30% of Glaston's total revenue, of which we estimate a significant portion comes from the US market. Glaston has no local production (production facilities in Finland, Germany and China), so tariffs will affect the company's equipment sales in the USA. In our view, however, local production is relatively limited, and some competitors may only have production in China, for which the tariffs are higher than those imposed on the EU. Therefore, in terms of Glaston's relative position, we believe that the tariff decisions do not have a material negative impact. Instead, the decision further darkens the already weak outlook for the equipment market.

For Ponsse, North America's revenue has accounted for approximately 15% of total revenue in recent years, and is therefore not the company's main market. However, it is fundamentally a potential growth market for Ponsse, where, in our view, the market situation has also improved recently, especially in the USA. With the company's manufacturing concentrated in Vieremä, tariffs will automatically have a negative impact on the competitiveness of Ponsse's and, more broadly, major competitors' (Deere and Komatsu) cut-to-length method forest machines manufactured in Europe compared to locally manufactured full-tree method machines. In this sense, the longer-term persistence of import duties could have a clear impact on the development of Ponsse's demand in the USA.

For KONE, the U.S. market is the second largest by country, and its revenue has accounted for approximately 20% of annual revenue in recent years. The company has local production in the USA, but it also imports equipment and components from outside the USA. We believe the same dynamics apply to its main competitors as well. However, in KONE's case, it is worth noting the significant share of the aftermarket in the formation of earnings.

In recent years, Robit's revenue in the Americas region has accounted for just over 20% of its total revenue. However, we estimate that revenue is distributed relatively widely, reflecting the characteristics of the mining market, among other things. Therefore, we do not expect the US market to be very large for the company at the moment either, but naturally the market has clear growth potential for Robit. The company has no local production in the USA, but we estimate that it will be able to utilize its UK factory in deliveries (import duties set for the UK are 10% versus EU 20%). However, we estimate that the tariffs could negatively affect customers' decision-making and end demand (especially in construction).

In 2024, 27% of Valmet's revenue came from North America, most of which we estimate to have come from the United States. However, this is not entirely export, as Valmet also has local production in the United States for some products and services (cf. approximately 12% of Valmet's personnel were in North America last year, with the majority probably in the United States). In our view, however, Valmet would suffer to some extent from the tariffs, as it is unlikely that all of the US revenue can be supplied locally. Exports to the United States have probably come from several countries (including EU countries and China). In addition, tariffs are fundamentally negatively affecting the US economy and thus Valmet's investment and service demand in different regions.

In 2024, approximately 22% of Raute's revenue, or about 46 MEUR, came from North America, where the weight of the USA is probably high. This is probably mainly exports from Canada, Finland, and possibly China, although Raute has an analyzer production plant and service business personnel in the United States. Of course, the revenue share varies considerably, as is typical for the nature of project business. Thus, tariffs on Canada and EU countries and the resulting need to raise prices may have some negative impact on the company's competitiveness in the USA, as we understand that there is also local manufacturing in the USA, at least for certain parts of plywood and LVL production.

Konecranes' revenue from the AME region accounted for 38% last year. We estimate that a significant portion of this comes from the United States. The company also has local production in the United States, as 17% of Konecranes' assets and 20% of its personnel were in the Americas region. Therefore, we estimate that Konecranes has had export deliveries to the United States at least from EU countries and possibly also from elsewhere, so the tariffs would probably have some direct negative effects on the company.

Hiab’s (including MacGregor) revenue, 42% came from the United States and Canada last year, the former certainly accounting for the majority. The company has local assembly and R&D operations in the United States, but we estimate that Konecranes has had export deliveries to the United States, at least from EU countries and possibly also from elsewhere. Thus, the tariffs would likely have some direct negative impacts on Hiab as well.

Forest companies

25% of Metsä Board's revenue has come from the United States, which, along with Europe, is the company's other main market in the paperboard business. This is purely cardboard exports from Finland and Sweden, divided into folding boxboard and linerboard. Metsä Board's paperboard business margin has been weak in recent years due to weak demand, and we estimate that the company will have to add the tariffs to its selling prices. As for folding boxboard, there is local production of substitute products in the United States, so we estimate that the company will lose market share if/when tariffs raise the company's prices. In addition, there is a risk that competition in the folding boxboard segment in Europe will further intensify if new homes have to be found for the tonnes sold to the United States by the company and its competitors.

In the prevailing demand situation, cardboard volumes potentially released from the United States can also be sold on the European markets, which makes the situation problematic. There is no direct local supply of coated liners in the United States (Kemi mill). The situation is somewhat easier for them, although we estimate that tariffs would also reduce linerboard exports to some extent, as some customers may switch to lower quality packaging solutions as costs rise.

Last year, 3% of Stora Enso's revenue came from the United States. Therefore, the impact of tariffs on the company is limited in the current situation. However, Stora Enso may suffer significantly from the tariffs in the coming years, as the company is ramping up a large folding boxboard machine with a capacity of 800,000 tonnes in Oulu. In our view, Stora Enso was supposed to sell some of Oulu's growing capacity to the United States, where success is questionable due to tariff-induced price pressures and reasonable local supply. In the prevailing demand and competitive situation in the European paperboard market, we believe it will be very difficult for Stora Enso to sell the new capacity to Europe at a higher rate than before. Thus, in our view, Trump's tariffs could hamper the company's major investment ramp-up and its transformation into a profitable unit. In addition, the indirect effects of tariffs on global commodity flows in the forest sector can be unpredictable.