NIBE har släppt sin Q4-rapport, och i denna analytikerintervju går vi igenom de viktigaste punkterna. Analytiker Lucas förklarar varför NIBEs mål att återgå till historiska marginaler för 2025 är ambitiöst enligt honom, vilka faktorer kan påskynda återhämtningen på marknaden och varför han tycker aktien är rättvist värderad.

NIBE’s Q4 result was operationally slightly above our expectations, and we made minor upside revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. The company's outlook and market indicators continue to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation. However, the recovery will likely be slow, as at least the first half of this year will remain challenging, due to continued excess inventories in some markets and a slow recovery in consumer confidence and purchasing power as well as in the new-construction market. Additionally, while volume growth and cost-cutting efforts are expected to support margins, we anticipate continued headwinds from high inventory and pricing risks. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).

We have updated our short- and medium-term forecasts for NIBE, in the light of a slower-than-expected European heat pump market. While we still believe the market has largely bottomed out, driven by the normalization of inventories at the distribution level in most European markets, a meaningful recovery is likely to take time to materialize due to a slow recovery in consumer confidence and purchasing power, as well as in the new-build market. In our view, short-term drivers remain weak and the stock is already sufficiently priced in for high earnings growth (2025e P/E: 28x).

Det tredje kvartalet går mot sitt slut, och vi djupdyker i Q3-rapporterna från NIBE, Metacon och Björn Borg tillsammans med analytikern Lucas, som har expertinsikt i dessa bolag. Vi summerar rapporternas höjdpunkter, diskuterar nyckelfaktorer som påverkat utvecklingen under kvartalet och blickar framåt mot bolagens framtidsutsikter. Ta del av alla analyser och ställ dina frågor direkt på forumet, där Lucas alltid finns redo att svara.