NIBE’s Q4 result was operationally slightly above our expectations, and we made minor upside revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. The company's outlook and market indicators continue to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation. However, the recovery will likely be slow, as at least the first half of this year will remain challenging, due to continued excess inventories in some markets and a slow recovery in consumer confidence and purchasing power as well as in the new-construction market. Additionally, while volume growth and cost-cutting efforts are expected to support margins, we anticipate continued headwinds from high inventory and pricing risks. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).

We have updated our short- and medium-term forecasts for NIBE, in the light of a slower-than-expected European heat pump market. While we still believe the market has largely bottomed out, driven by the normalization of inventories at the distribution level in most European markets, a meaningful recovery is likely to take time to materialize due to a slow recovery in consumer confidence and purchasing power, as well as in the new-build market. In our view, short-term drivers remain weak and the stock is already sufficiently priced in for high earnings growth (2025e P/E: 28x).

Det tredje kvartalet går mot sitt slut, och vi djupdyker i Q3-rapporterna från NIBE, Metacon och Björn Borg tillsammans med analytikern Lucas, som har expertinsikt i dessa bolag. Vi summerar rapporternas höjdpunkter, diskuterar nyckelfaktorer som påverkat utvecklingen under kvartalet och blickar framåt mot bolagens framtidsutsikter. Ta del av alla analyser och ställ dina frågor direkt på forumet, där Lucas alltid finns redo att svara.

NIBE’s Q3 result was operationally slightly below our expectations, and we made small revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. However, the company's outlook continues to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation, but overall, the current year and at least the first half of next year will still be challenging. Eventually, demand at the manufacturer level will better correspond to underlying end consumer demand and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).

NIBE will be publishing its Q3 results on Friday at 8.00 am CEST. The results are expected to be weaker than last year's relatively strong figures, due to a decline in revenue.