Metacon är ett energiteknikbolag som utvecklar och säljer små och stora energisystem för produktion av vätgas, el och värme. Bolaget grundades 2011 och innehar patenterad teknologi för produktion av vätgas från biogas eller andra kolväten. Utbudet består exempelvis av tankstationer samt större kraftvärmesystem. Bolaget har sitt huvudkontor i Örebro.
We have received some investor questions regarding our net liquidity calculation for Metacon's recent rights issue, as presented in our latest research update. This note clarifies those details.
As noted in our recent research report, 41 MSEK is our estimate of the net new funding coming in at the conclusion of the rights issue after the company repaid its bridge loan and related costs. To clarify, this comes on top of the 50 MSEK bridge loan taken earlier at the beginning of the rights issue. In total, we estimate the company to have secured 91 MSEK new funding in Q4’24.
As detailed in our report, we estimate that the current funding will last until around summer 2025, based on a quarterly burn rate of 25–30 MSEK. We also anticipate that approximately 180–190 MSEK from the Motor Oil order will be released around the same time. This means that the liquidity situation is tight and that the burn rate over the coming quarters and the timing of when liquidity from the project is released will significantly influence whether the company will need to secure additional financing before generating positive cash flows from the Motor Oil order. Regardless of the timing, based on our current estimates outlined in the recent research report, we believe that Metacon will require additional financing during the next 2–3 years before reaching cash flow neutrality, unless new customer projects require less working capital during the initial phase. We are particularly interested in more details regarding the timing of cash flows from the Motor Oil order, the current burn rate, and Metacon’s financial position in its Q4’24 report, which will be released on February 26.
Given the ongoing weak market conditions and the lack of new orders, we believe that operational risks have increased. In addition, the falling share price has increased financing risks and is starting to cause uncomfortably high volatility in expected returns and dilution, and we wait for these risks to subside.
Metacon has announced the preliminary outcome of their rights issue, which indicates that subscriptions by exercise of subscription rights amount to 24.6%. Additionally, applications for subscription of 4,672,411 shares without the support of subscription rights, corresponding to approximately 0.7% of the rights issue, have been received. Thus, the preliminary outcome indicates that the rights issue is subscribed to approximately 25.3%, and an additional ~54.7% will be subscribed for by guarantors. In total, the rights issue is therefore expected to reach 80% of the maximum subscription, or ~110 MSEK before expenses. While we had anticipated the rights issue to be fully subscribed, the fact that the stock price has occasionally traded below the subscription price makes this outcome less surprising.
Det tredje kvartalet går mot sitt slut, och vi djupdyker i Q3-rapporterna från NIBE, Metacon och Björn Borg tillsammans med analytikern Lucas, som har expertinsikt i dessa bolag. Vi summerar rapporternas höjdpunkter, diskuterar nyckelfaktorer som påverkat utvecklingen under kvartalet och blickar framåt mot bolagens framtidsutsikter. Ta del av alla analyser och ställ dina frågor direkt på forumet, där Lucas alltid finns redo att svara.
Metacon’s Q3 results were mixed, with revenue aligning with our expectations while costs were significantly higher, reflecting the company’s preparations for larger-scale deliveries. With short-term funding soon in check, Metacon can focus on fulfilling the large-scale order from Motor Oil, with clear signs of progress expected to be visible next year. However, given the uncertainty of whether the company will continue to receive larger orders regularly and at what profitability level, the forecast risks remain high.
The recently announced capital raise reduces the financing risks and secures the company’s financing until late 2025. Due to the overall structure of the raise, we expect it to succeed. With short-term funding soon secured, Metacon can again focus on executing its commercialization plans.