Även om vi ser den senaste avyttringen som positiv, eftersom den minskar finansieringsrisken något och indikerar förtroende för bolagets förmåga att framgångsrikt avyttra projekt i tidiga skeden, anser vi att värderingen har stigit till höga nivåer. Dessutom räknar vi med behov av ytterligare finansiering under de kommande månaderna, vilket leder till att vi för närvarande uppfattar riskerna som alltför stora för att förlita oss på potentialen.

Hexicon meddelade idag att man avyttrar två av sina italienska projekt till Ingka Investments och Oxan Energy där transaktionen förväntas slutföras i början av april.

Hexicon’s Q4 report contained no major surprises. In the context of a challenging operating environment, the company continues to experience long divestment processes and negotiations. As a result, we expect the establishment of a long-term ownership structure for the MunmuBaram project, which could provide near-term financing and improve cash flow for project development, to be delayed until around summer 2025. In our view, the company needs additional capital in the coming months, forcing Hexicon to explore other financing options on uncertain terms. Against this backdrop, we believe the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable.

Hexicon har idag publicerat sin Q4 rapport som bekräftar att 2024, likt 2023, var ett utmanande år. Men trots en utmanande marknadsmiljö har Hexicon sett positiva framsteg under året. Analytiker Lucas Mattsson intervjuar VD Marcus Thor som diskuterar framstegen i projektet Munmubaram, varför marknaden har blåst åt fel håll under året samt den finansiella utvecklingen under kvartalet.

Hexicon will publish its Q4 results on Wednesday, February 19, at 8:00 am CET. We expect the company’s revenue to continue to be modest, driven mainly by consulting fees. In the bigger picture, we believe that project divestments will be the main growth driver in the coming years. We therefore look forward to hearing more details on potential divestments, with a particular focus on the important MunmuBaram project.

Recent developments in Hexicon’s project portfolio have been mixed, in our view. While the MunmuBaram project finally received regulatory approval, the Swedish Government rejected two key projects, affecting the valuation negatively. Furthermore, Hexicon is still in need of immediate cash infusion, and we believe it will be difficult for the company to overcome the downward pressure from the expected equity issue, the high cash burn, and the remaining question marks concerning the structure of the MunmuBaram divestment. Against this backdrop, we believe that the near-term risk/reward profile is unfavorable. Consequently, we revise our recommendation to Sell (was Reduce) and lower our target price to SEK 0.14 (was 0.23), reflecting the negative impact of the reduced net capacity in the project portfolio and aligning with our SOTP valuation.