SaaS HCA update March 2025: Trend shows declining growth but improving profit
Median ARR multiple: By the end of March 2025, our HCA SaaS Index declined to a new low with a median multiple of 2.9x (3.0x by the end of March 2025), however, it is also dragged down by the delisting of Penneo (removed from the index) following the acquisition from Visma. Yet, The SaaS Capital Index, covering the US/global SaaS market, also declined to a median ARR multiple of 6.6x (from 7.1x by the end of February 2025) following continued market headwinds across the US software sector.
Biggest tech IPO since 2021: If we set aside all the general macro uncertainty, primarily from the uncertainty created by the Trump administration, and we zoom into other news, Nasdaq welcomed CoreWeave – the biggest tech IPO since 2021 based on the raised amount of capital. CoreWeave is considered a pure-play AI company, supplying OpenAI with cloud services (62% of the USD 1.92bn revenue in 2024). After a flat stock price development, the CoreWeave share now trades approx. 9% above the offer price. A successful IPO could normally open up the markets for more IPO. But the tarif-crisis have probably closed the window again very fast.
Overview of the Danish SaaS reports and 2025 guidance: As almost all of the Danish-listed SaaS companies have now reported their 2024 results and new 2025 guidance, we can now summarize the earnings season. As shown in the graphs, the general trend is that ARR growth has declined since 2022 levels, yet profitability (EBITDA) has improved to less negative results for the growth stocks. Two of the latest reports from March were from Impero and MapsPeople, delivering ARR growth of 28% YoY and 12% YoY, respectively. Impero continued its momentum in the German-speaking markets (DACH) from various industries and expects to grow between 19% and 34% in 2025. MapsPeople expects to accelerate the ARR growth to between 20% and 37% in 2025, evenly distributed between EMEA and North America. Below, we have provided an overview of the results (2022-2024) for both ARR growth and EBITDA across the Danish-listed SaaS companies.
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Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from some of the mentioned SaaS companies in the newsletter (Agillic, Impero, MapsPeople) for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis 15:16, 10-04-2025.
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