Purmo Q3'24 flash comment: Profitability missed comparison period and our estimates
Av Rauli Juva
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/22/2024 at 8:56 am EEST.
As expected, Purmo's Q3 revenue was close to the comparison period, but profitability was slightly below both the comparison period and expectations. The company reiterated its guidance and expects full-year adj. EBITDA to be in line or better than last year. The company is now 98% owned by Grand Bidco following the tender offer in August and the redemption proceedings for the remaining shares are underway. As a result, the company will be delisted in the coming months. The Q3 report is likely to be the last in Purmo's stock market career, and we do not believe that its contents will have any further impact on the stock.
Q3 revenue as expected, result somewhat soft, guidance unchanged
Purmo's Q3 revenue was slightly down year-on-year, along with the Climate Solutions segment, and broadly in line with our expectations. Adj. EBITDA was below our expectations and the comparison period, also due to the underperformance of the Climate Solutions segment. Purmo's efficiency program continued to support the margin development, but on the other hand the still slightly declining revenue, the costs of production transfer as well as the cost inflation will weigh on the result.
Purmo reiterated its guidance and expects adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024 to be at the same level or above compared to 2023 (92.3 MEUR). After 9 months, the result is 4.5 MEUR below the comparison period. Our forecast before the Q3 result was 94 MEUR, which is within the company's definition of "at the same level" (+/- 5%). The forecast is under slight downward pressure based on the tepid Q3 result. However, Purmo commented that there are signs of a pick-up in the market, which, together with the progress of the efficiency program, supports the achievement of the guidance.
Redemption proceedings and delisting underway
The Purmo share redemption proceedings are underway, and the company has announced its intention to delist from the stock exchange as soon as possible. This is expected to occur in the coming months, and we believe that the Q3 report will be Purmo's last as a public company.
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Purmo Group
11,2
11,06
Minska
Purmo Group är verksamt inom komfortlösningar för inomhusklimat i Europa. Bolaget tillhandahåller värme- och kyllösningar till bostadshus och lokaler, inklusive radiatorer, handduksvärmare, golvvärme, konvektorer, ventiler och kontroller. Verksamheten är indelad i ett flertal affärsområden och lösningarna används exempelvis inom industrin samt bland fastigheter. Kunderna återfinns på global nivå med störst koncentration inom Europa. Produkterna riktar sig till företagskunder och privatpersoner.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures05.08.
| 2023 | 24e | 25e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omsättning | 743,2 | 715,9 | 741,6 |
| tillväxt-% | −17,80 % | −3,67 % | 3,59 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 55,4 | 65,1 | 73,8 |
| EBIT-% | 7,45 % | 9,09 % | 9,95 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0,68 | 0,73 | 0,98 |
| Utdelning | 0,35 | 0,35 | 0,37 |
| Direktavkastning | 5,65 % | 3,11 % | 3,28 % |
| P/E (just.) | 9,06 | 15,39 | 11,42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11,56 | 9,10 | 7,58 |
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