Orthex's Q4 report was stronger than expected, helped by Nordic sales. However, longer-term value creation is heavily dependent on export market growth, which has recently stalled due to challenges with distribution partners.

We expect revenue to be down slightly from the unreasonably strong comparison period in a weak demand environment. Our estimates anticipate an increasing dividend distribution from Orthex, but as usual we do not expect the company to provide guidance for the current year.

In the context of the report, we have lowered Orthex's growth forecasts for the next few years due to the continued weakness in the demand environment and the challenges faced by distributors of Orthex's products. We remain confident in the longer-term outlook of the investment story.

Orthex will publish its Q3 report on Friday at 9:00 am EET. We expect modest revenue growth despite the weak sales development of Nordic retailers.