Valuation dependent on PAYDAY 3 recovery
By Inderes
PAYDAY 3’s initial sales exceeded our and the company’s expectations. Since then, however, the player count has decreased drastically, and undoubtedly, so have the game’s sales, upon which Starbreeze’s valuation rests. To combat the declining player count, Starbreeze announced a free update containing, among other things, two new heists. If the update and future updates (paid and free) successfully entice players to return, Starbreeze’s current valuation is undoubtedly very low. If, on the other hand, the game does not recover from the troubled start, the company’s prospects are severely dented. We believe PAYDAY 3 should not yet be counted out, and given the current low valuation, we assess the risk-reward ratio as modestly positive.
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Starbreeze
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Starbreeze is a developer, creator, publisher, and distributor of games for PC and console, targeting the global market. With the IP PAYDAY™ as a core, Starbreeze develops games based on proprietary and third-party rights, both in-house and in partnership with external game developers. Starbreeze utilizes a ’Games as a Service’-modell, with continuous releases of add-ons and updatates to their games. The majority of operations are in Europe. The company’s headquarters is in Stockholm.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures17.11.2023
| 2022 | 23e | 24e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 127.6 | 627.9 | 260.3 |
| growth-% | 1.52 % | 392.05 % | -58.54 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 6.7 | 256.8 | -26.3 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 5.29 % | 40.89 % | -10.09 % |
| EPS (adj.) | -0.08 | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| Dividend | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dividend % | |||
| P/E (adj.) | - | 0.89 | - |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.07 | - | - |
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