contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  availableLanguages
  pageUrl
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
      }
      id
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    id
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    defaultInstrument {
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


gubra-one-pager-obesity-market-upgrade-enhances-dcf-estimates

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

availableLanguages

pageUrl

imgUrl

description

Equity Research Analyst

Philip Coombes

CEO, Sweden

Claus Thestrup

Gubra is a pharmaceutical company. The company's operations are focused on the early stages of drug development. They mainly conduct research and development in the field of metabolic and fibrotic diseases. The company's product portfolio includes several brands and pharmaceuticals, and operations are conducted on a global level, with the largest presence in North America and the Nordics. The head office is located in Hørsholm, Denmark.

Gubra

We have revised our DCF-model, guided by the company, to reflect new estimates for the total obesity market in 2030. With the current share price in line with our latest one-pager from June 2024, the model indicates a lower probability og success (PoS) in the base case.

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<p class="MsoNormal">Gubra&#x2019;s share price has risen by nearly 300% year-to-date, driven by growing investor interest in the obesity sector and increasing awareness of Gubra&#x2019;s obesity focus within its Discovery &amp; Preclinical (D&amp;P) business.</p>
<p>From an investment perspective, Gubra offers investors a unique risk and return profile by combining 1) A high growing and positive cash flow- generating CRO business benefitting from the trend of pharma companies increasingly outsourcing CRO services, with CRO market spending forecast to grow at 11% CAGR 2026[1]), and 2) A high-reward traditional drug discovery activity in its D&amp;P business. The CRO segment&#x2019;s positive cash flows support its D&amp;P activities with additional synergies from knowledge and resource exchange. Gubra&#x2019;s D&amp;P segment are developing pipeline candidates with partners with significant future milestones and royalty potential, as well as its own two (non-partnered) obesity product candidates Amylin-analog based GUBamy and UCN2 (targeting &#x2018;healthy weight loss&#x2019;). They can both act as stand-alone products or products used in combination with other obesity products &#x2013; or even be combined with each other.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Following its Q2 2024 report, Gubra upgraded its full-year guidance, raising expectations for 2024 organic revenue growth to 23-28% (up from 15-20%) and its EBIT margin to 29-32% (from 28-31%).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We have revised our DCF-model, guided by the company, to reflect new estimates for the total obesity market in 2030. With the current share price in line with our latest one-pager from June 2024, the model indicates a lower probability og success (PoS) in the base case.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Strong growth in Gubra&#x2019;s CRO business, primarily fueled by obesity-related projects, reinforces the belief that Gubra&#x2019;s early-stage pipeline may have a competitive edge from a medical innovation perspective. This advantage could allow the company to capture a larger market share than previously assumed in the DCF model, even as Gubra and its partners are set to enter what is anticipated to be a highly competitive and crowded obesity marketplace.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Disclaimer: <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US">HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gubra for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup&#xa0;3:45 PM 09-09-2024.</span></p>
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Gubra (One pager): Obesity Market Upgrade Enhances DCF Estimates

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