Ascelia Pharma (One-pager): Progressing according to plan
The company has successfully conducted a rights issue raising gross proceeds of SEK 105m, which strengthens its balance sheet and improves the company’s negotiation power with potential partners. Combined with its TO 1 warrants, to be exercised in April 2025, the company is fully financed until end-2025, excluding potential additional partnership milestones. Since the latest rights issue was announced on 10 June 2024, the share price has retreated 78%, reflecting that the market implicitly assumes there is just over 30% probability of success (PoS) for approval and successful launch of Orviglance in the base case scenario. See page 2-3 for further discussions of the model and results.
There are currently no competitors and given its niche market, addressing only around 4% of patients, the market will likely remain competition-free during the 7-year FDA regulatory exclusivity period, suggesting that profitability will be higher for longer. Also, a partner-based commercialization strategy will reduce the funding requirement and support commercial launch around early 2026.
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Ascelia Pharma for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 3:50 PM 21-10-2024.
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Ascelia Pharma
Ascelia Pharma is a Swedish biotech company with a focus on orphan oncology treatments. They develop and commercialize novel drugs that address unmet medical needs and have a clear development and market pathway. Currently, Ascelia pharma has two pipeline products, namely Orviglance and Oncoral. Orviglance is a novel contrast agent for MR-Imaging developed to improve the detecting and visualization of focal liver lesions (Including liver metastases – and primary tumors) in patients with reduced kidney function. Oncoral is a daily tablet with an established potent anti-tumor effect – even in difficult to treat cancers with the potential to offer better patient outcomes with improved safety following a daily tablet treatment compared to intravenous high-dose infusions at the hospital. Ascelia Pharma is listed on Nasdaq Small Cap Stockholm with ticker ACE.
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